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Prediction for CME (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-01T19:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43719/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T20:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T15:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43722/1
Model Inputs:
2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=22.0, Speed=628.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2026-01-02T01:01Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-04T15:17Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T02:20Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T09:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-04T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 70.17 hour(s)
Difference: 5.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-01T22:31Z

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